Research from the Department of Statistics shows that the 3-points-for-a-win rule, introduced by FIFA in 1994, didn’t lead to one of the expected results – making football more offensive. However, the rule has led to significant decrease in the proportion of matches that end in a draw.

In the report "Bayesian Change-point Modelling of the Effects of 3-points-for-a-win Rule in Football", Gebrenegus Ghilagaber and Parfait Munezero are breaking new ground by applying Bayesian change-point modelling to assess how football was affected by the rule.

They conclude: "the rule has given teams the incentive to win matches (rather than draw). However, this was achieved not by scoring ’too many’ goals but, rather, by scoring enough goals in order to win and, at the same time, defending enough in order not to lose."